TransWilts CIC and TransWilts Community Rail
Public and sustainable transport in Wiltshire

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Four time target - good news. Four time prediction - poor forecasting.

When Wiltshire Council asked for support through a local sustainable transport fund grant for a three year trial of an appropriate train service on the northern section of the TransWilts line (the Swindon to Westbury section of the Swindon to Salisbury line), they rightly set targets of passenger journey numbers that they wanted to surpass, with those numbers set such they would offer a viable way forward into the future at the end of the three year trial should they be achieved. Those targets are 45,000 passenger journeys on the section of the line which isn't shared with other services in the first year, rising to 108,000 journeys on the same section in the third year.

Separately from the targets, there are predictions of the passenger journey numbers we might expect. Independently, Wiltshire Council, First, the community and the community's consultants have come up with ideas / predictions of the sort of numbers that we might achieve, and those are a range of predicstions - lower figures based on some things not working quite as well as we might expect, and higher figures reflecing the results we would expect if everything goes well together. The predictions are all subjective, and many of them are based on commercially confident data, so it wouldn't be right for me to share them all here.

What I can tell you is where we're headed in the first year, now that we're two thirds of the way through. It's no longer a case of predications based largely on commercial data and theoretical work; rather it's now based on the extrapollation of actual data for the remaining part of the year, and I don't expect we'll be very far from 165,000 journeys - that's 3.6 times our target for the first year, and already 1.53 times our target for the third year.

In the past few days, I have been asked to justify how we got our forecasts so wrong, with some resulting doubt placed on our predictions. But we didn't get any forecasts wrong - the targets were / are the figures we need to reach for their to be no realistic question but that we've got enough traffic, and they are figures we need to reach to help ensure a viable basis for the continuation of the service. They were based on that model ... yes, we checked to ensure that the targets were going to be easy to achieve, and indeed we would have been foolish to set ourselves targets about which there was any real doubt. So we can celebrate being may times over target, with heads held high.




I will admit that our results are coming in very much at the upper end of predictions. And that's because of everything and everyone coming together to make it all work. Wiltshire Council with their support. First Great Western, who have made a number of decisions that have been really helpful, and their fabulous operations team, and some of our community members who have been there on the ground and getting into the hearts and making sure that people know about the services and the options, know where to ask questions, and feel an ownership.
(written 2014-09-26)

 
Associated topics are indexed as below, or enter http://melksh.am/nnnn for individual articles
Z501 - Public Transport - Rail
  [4760] Rotary Talk, 25/7/2017 - (2017-07-25)
  [4727] Learning from travelling further afield - (2016-11-09)
  [4726] TransWilts Partner Update for Melksham Area Board - (2016-11-07)
  [4706] Melksham trial train service is to be made permanent - (2016-10-02)
  [4699] Melksham Rail Development Group - a celebration of 20 years - (2016-06-25)
  [4695] Melksham Rail Development Group becoming Melksham Rail Users Group - (2016-06-21)
  [4688] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 5 (services and prices) - (2016-05-30)
  [4687] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 4 - (2016-05-30)
  [4686] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 3 - (2016-05-29)
  [4685] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 2 - (2016-05-29)
  [4684] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 1 - (2016-05-28)
  [4677] Swindon, Chippenham and Melksham - day trips by train to Weymouth start for 2016 - (2016-05-18)
  [4665] Chippenham to Salisbury by public transport - what we have and what we could have - (2016-03-26)
  [4640] Who was Doctor Beeching and what was his axe? - (2016-02-06)
  [4636] Rail user groups worried about what is happening on the buses - (2016-01-31)
  [4623] Rambling from Westbury - (2016-01-16)
  [4612] TransWilts - robust these days - no longer the first service to be cancelled - (2016-01-03)
  [4598] 21 places to get your train and bus timetables for TransWilts - (2015-12-19)
  [4596] Call for help counting passengers - TransWilts, 12th to 14th December - (2015-12-10)
  [4578] Rail electrification - far, far too optimistic so over budget and late - (2015-11-20)
  [4539] TransWilts public transport corridor - (2015-10-15)
  [4515] Why has the hourly Chippenham to Trowbridge train been withdrawn? - (2015-09-24)
  [4512] The Weymouth Wizard - Saturdays in August from Wiltshire - (2015-07-31)
  [4511] The Royal Albert Bridge as you do not normally see it - (2015-07-12)
  [4496] Sunday train times - 17th May to 6th September 2015 - (2015-05-17)
  [4495] Swindon to Westbury train services - Saturdays from 23rd May 2015 - (2015-05-17)
  [4486] Newark to New York - the PATH suburban railway - (2015-05-05)
  [4478] Home in Melksham to Gatwick Airport - easy by public transport - (2015-04-29)
  [4475] New car park at Melksham Station - ideal for commuters from Seend, Hilperton, Yarnbrook and Holt - (2015-04-26)
  [4473] Fishguard to Melksham - third part of Dublin journey - (2015-04-25)
  [4471] Leopardstown to Rosslare by train - (2015-04-23)
  [4467] Neighbourhood Plan - travel and transport thoughts - (2015-03-29)
  [4464] Catching up on a week all in a single post (?) - (2015-03-21)
  [4425] A Welsh valley - what the transport looks like in 2015 - (2015-02-14)
  [4397] TransWilts / Press and Publicity report for AGM / 30th January 2015 - (2015-01-17)
  [4378] What FGW passengers want to talk about / and PHP programming to find out - (2015-01-01)
  [4367] A year of rail memories! - (2014-12-27)
  [4365] The changing face of Christmas - (2014-12-26)
  [4353] Celebration pictures, year 1 - (2014-12-15)
  [4352] A long day on the trains, but a rewarding one - (2014-12-14)
  [4342] My first official measure - Passenger Entrys and Exits - revisited 9 years later - (2014-12-05)
  [4312] Officially overcrowded in the first year - (2014-11-15)
  [4289] It may be cheaper to buy in bulk - (2014-07-15)
  [4276] Swindon to Weymouth - by train, the traditional way - 2014 - (2014-05-12)
  [4269] Survey - Journeys - (2014-04-28)
  [4268] Metrics - historic and current TransWilts train use - (2014-04-27)
  [4267] How effective is our publicity? - (2014-04-26)
  [4263] Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge, public transport over Easter (2014) - (2014-04-12)
  [4256] Train fare look expensive? There may be a cheaper option - (2014-04-02)
  [4253] Easter Weeks - Melksham to Weymouth - (2014-04-02)
  [4252] Staveton Halt, former station between Trowbridge and Melksham - (2014-03-25)
  [4251] Broughton Gifford Halt, TransWilts Railway Line - (2014-03-24)
  [4250] Lacock Halt - former TransWilts Station - (2014-03-23)
  [4238] A Question series posed to Melksham Tourist information - (2014-01-19)
  [4226] Saturday train to Swindon - two weeks in - (2013-12-21)
  [4224] TransWilts - first day pictures - (2013-12-18)
  [4219] TransWilts train services - up from 2 to 8 per day - (2013-12-09)
  [4218] A THANK YOU to those who have brought the new train service to fruition - (2013-12-06)
  [4217] New train service - launch plans and timetable links - (2013-12-03)
  [4216] Los Angeles - post modern transport system - (2013-11-27)
  [4202] Excellent Railfuture conference, but some setup lessons - (2013-11-03)
  [4199] Draft Westbury - Melksham - Swindon train times, from December 2014 - (2013-10-24)
  [4196] Official - Trowbridge and Melksham to London train improvements - (2013-10-22)
  [4195] Booking for Santa, Melksham Railway Development Group, 8th December 2013 - (2013-10-21)
  [4194] TransWilts Link - meeting notes from 19th October - (2013-10-20)
  [4191] Getting people to and from Melksham Station - not 20 but 700 times a day - (2013-10-12)
  [4190] A radical proposal - a cheap and effective way to provide home to city commuter transport - (2013-10-11)
  [4185] TransWilts Trains - running a successful campaign talk - (2013-10-05)
  [4176] International and off island travel from Melksham - (2013-09-16)
  [4173] Train and Rail Travel - who runs it and where do I ask questions? - (2013-09-13)
  [4163] TransWilts Community Rail Partnership - formally constituted - (2013-09-01)
  [4160] Bank Holiday Monday - pictures of a great train trip to Weymouth - (2013-08-27)
  [4159] People WILL walk to the station in Melksham, but they need a path and trains - (2013-08-25)
  [4154] August Bank Holiday - day out from Melksham to London or Weymouth - (2013-08-20)
  [4150] Melksham Regular Public Transport Map - as at August 2013 - (2013-08-09)
  [4148] Special General Meeting, Adoption of Constitution for TransWilts Community Rail Partnership - (2013-08-01)
  [4146] A few more trains means a LOT more passengers. Why? - (2013-07-30)
  [4142] Passenger survey at Chippenham - report and pictures - (2013-07-24)
  [4131] West Coast (of Wales) - railway and stations in pictures - (2013-07-04)
  [4113] Wiltshire and Melksham Transport - what is going on? - (2013-06-09)
  [4110] TransWilts meeting ... - (2013-06-07)
  [4105] Our day trip by train from Swindon, Chippenham and Melksham to Weymouth - (2013-05-28)
  [4104] Weymouth vis the TransWilts - the day out today - (2013-05-27)
  [4080] Fancy a day at the seaside? Weymouth from Melksham - (2013-05-06)
  [4040] Report on the last year - Melksham Railway Developement Group for Melksham Without Parish Council - (2013-03-11)
  [4022] A request for all of Melksham transport groups to work integrated - (2013-03-01)
  [3995] Onward from Brussels - (2013-02-04)
  [3994] On board Eurostar - a running commentary - (2013-02-04)
  [3993] Two trains a day ... how many fares to London? Guess! - (2013-02-04)
  [3986] Rail services in Wiltshire - up in the air? We need to say what is best required. - (2013-01-20)
  [3942] Santa Trip - Melksham Railway Development Group, 2012 - (2012-12-03)
  [3938] A long overdue meeting - a steeping stone towards coordinate transport user inputs - (2012-12-02)
  [3937] Agenda for Wiltshire Link Travel groups meeting, Saturday 1st December 2012 - (2012-11-27)
  [3923] 35 minutes is only a slight delay on our railway service - (2012-11-15)
  [3904] Want to help us improve transport in Wiltshire? Here is how! - (2012-10-26)
  [3899] Father Christmas to be on train in Melksham - (2012-10-19)
  [3893] Public Transport across Wiltshire - a new map - (2012-10-13)
  [3890] Here comes Santa - on the train from Melksham to Swindon on 2nd December 2012 - (2012-10-13)
  [3882] Community Transport - Pewsey, Taunton, and the whole picture too - (2012-10-06)
  [3881] Wiltshire Public Transport User Group co-ordination - (2012-10-05)
  [3879] Mixed mode travel - Information systems - (2012-10-03)
  [3873] Henbury loop, Bristol - a freight railway line with passenger potential? - (2012-09-29)
  [3872] Trains across Wiltshire - an update on the TransWilts - (2012-09-28)
  [3860] Melksham to Steam in Swindon, by train - great day out - (2012-09-16)
  [3826] TransWilts trains - what the next franchise period will bring - (2012-08-04)
  [3815] The Melksham News - July 2012 - Part 2, TransWilts Rail, Wilts and Berks Canal - (2012-07-23)
  [3804] Scenes from commuting by train - (2012-07-14)
  [3802] What a difference a year makes - (2012-07-10)
  [3795] Like a bathroom company with no plumbers - (2012-07-04)
  [3793] Excellent Rail News - what it really means - (2012-07-01)
  [3786] Improving Wiltshire Rail Offer - it WILL be happening - (2012-06-28)
  [3784] Steam train calls at Melksham - Pictures - (2012-06-26)
  [3765] Christmas in June? Melksham hotel bookings and Santa train - (2012-06-15)
  [3761] Melksham - placed 2254 out of 2255. What can be done about it? - (2012-06-11)
  [3736] Abstraction - (2012-05-19)
  [3728] The future needs for rail services to Melksham - change needed; current service an insult - (2012-05-11)
  [3699] Bristol 50? Bristol 25? - (2012-04-17)
  [3671] Future train services in Wiltshire - please write in to support a better service - (2012-03-24)
  [3668] Kings Cross - new concourse - between Python in Cambridge and Objective C in London - (2012-03-22)
  [3642] Wiltshire Travel Times - Chippenham, Trowbridge, Salisbury and other places too - (2012-03-07)
  [3631] Getting around Dublin by public transport - some observations - (2012-03-01)
  [3626] There is so much to see travelling by train - (2012-02-26)
  [3601] Rail Travel - has it become more unreliable? - (2012-02-02)
  [3579] Transport in Cambridgeshire - seen by an outside observer. What can Wiltshire learn? - (2012-01-15)
  [3565] What would an appropriate train service on the TransWilts line mean - (2011-12-31)
  [3564] I wish I was not a special case - (2011-12-29)
  [3550] Provide a useable train service, and people will use it! - (2011-12-11)
  [3538] Santa Train - another successful trip - 4th December 2011 - (2011-12-04)
  [3501] Santa Claus - on the train from Melksham on 4th December 2011 - (2011-10-30)
  [3493] West Wilts Rail User Group - Walk yesterday from Bradford-on-Avon to Trowbridge - (2011-10-23)
  [3487] Public transport - road and rail - (2011-10-19)
  [3486] How important is public transport to people in the Melksham area? - (2011-10-19)
  [3452] Which or ATOC - who reads train fares right? - (2011-09-22)
  [3434] Sundays - and over eating - (2011-09-11)
  [3410] A review of the Summer Sunday extra trains on the TransWilts line - (2011-08-29)
  [3408] Journey home by public transport for a Bank Holiday - (2011-08-27)
  [3403] Last chance this summer - Swindon and North Wiltshire to Weymouth by through train - (2011-08-22)
  [3392] What costs 8.20 from Melksham, or 22.30 via Chippenham? - (2011-08-14)
  [3378] New product - ensuring that supply matches demand - (2011-08-03)
  [3371] From Wiltshire to Weymouth on Sundays - (2011-07-27)
  [3370] Standing Challenge - (2011-07-26)
  [3364] Dogs Legs on the Dogleg - (2011-07-20)
  [3362] Swindon, Chippenham and Melksham to Weymouth - Sunday Train Service Starts - (2011-07-19)
  [3336] Efficient travel - from Melsksham to Edinburgh by Sleeper Train - (2011-06-26)
  [3331] Comparing Alloa and Melksham - stations and services - (2011-06-23)
  [3328] Summer Sundays - days out by train from Swindon on the TransWilts - (2011-06-18)
  [3318] Summer Sunday Trains - outings from Swindon, Chippenham, Melksham, Trowbridge and Westbury - (2011-06-05)
  [3274] Small scale improvement - big scale gain. And they CAN be done with local knowledge - (2011-05-02)
  [3273] Wanted - a look to the future - (2011-05-02)
  [3198] TransWilts rail - coming together, wanted and needed - (2011-03-10)
  [3187] Past and Present - Melksham Station - (2011-02-27)
  [3178] The cost of roadworks on the economy of our town - 1800 pounds per hour? - (2011-02-20)
  [3176] Comparing German, Dutch and British Railways - (2011-02-19)
  [3171] Train and boat journey - the passenger accommodation - (2011-02-15)
  [3167] Can I take my dog by train? And other questions - (2011-02-12)
  [3161] TransWilts rail - what picture represents us - (2011-02-08)
  [3141] Wiltshire Rail services - a golden opportunity - (2011-01-21)
  [3135] A time to be brave? We should ask for what is best for our area. - (2011-01-16)
  [3119] TransWilts - some things to see and do - (2011-01-03)
  [3114] Transwilts Link - both Wiltshire and beyond - (2010-12-30)
  [3113] Trowbridge and Melksham to Chippenham - more roadworks, even slower journey over the winter - (2010-12-30)
  [3111] TransWilts Link - Days out from Swindon to Weymouth? - (2010-12-28)
  [3080] Santa Special - rather more special than usual - December 2010 - (2010-12-07)
  [3079] TransWilts Rail News ... Melksham (Santa Special) Edition ... 5th December 2010 - (2010-12-04)
  [3033] Rail services back to Radstock? - (2010-11-07)
  [3031] Get all your ducks in a row ... and they may turn into swans - (2010-11-06)
  [3017] Seventh day traveller on the six day railway - (2010-10-27)
  [3006] Santa announcement, 5th December 2010, Melksham - (2010-10-20)
  [2982] Travel, Transport and Tourism - A vision for Melksham, 2026 - (2010-10-03)
  [2955] Melksham Railway Station - new information point - (2010-09-13)
  [2954] Railway meetings, trips and meetups this autumn - (2010-09-12)
  [2931] Syncronise - software, trains, and buses. Please! - (2010-08-22)
  [2930] Walk - Tilehurst to Pangborne - (2010-08-21)
  [2919] London to Calne, Corsham, Melksham, Bradford-on-Avon, Chippenham by public Transport - (2010-08-13)
  [2908] How Green is my train? - (2010-08-07)
  [2901] Ambassador or Anorak? - (2010-08-03)
  [2855] Train Services - Melksham to Bath and Bristol (and airport) - (2010-07-05)
  [2808] From home to Nurnberg - journey pictures - (2010-06-13)
  [2696] Garlic bread without garlic - (2010-03-27)
  [2678] Reaching out to the community - a good case for support - (2010-03-15)
  [2664] Oliver Cromwell at Bristol Temple Meads - (2010-03-06)
  [2662] Is Melksham public transport actually used? - (2010-03-05)
  [2658] Save the Train - a significant change in approach - (2010-03-03)
  [2634] London to and from Melksham by public transport - (2010-02-13)
  [2627] Saturdays out from Melksham - to Oxford, to Didcot or to Swindon - (2010-02-07)
  [2626] On Malachite Green - (2010-02-06)
  [2568] Forums for your Melksham and open source discussions - (2010-01-09)
  [2557] Rail Campaign - response to core consultation - (2009-12-31)
  [2556] Railway Station Survey - please complete today or tomorrow - (2009-12-30)
  [2533] Five guests, three groups, one car - (2009-12-11)
  [2529] Santa Special, 2009 - (2009-12-06)
  [2522] Integrated public Transport - what could be done for Melksham - (2009-12-01)
  [2513] Wiltshire Council purchases Melksham Station Land - (2009-11-26)
  [2511] The story of the railway land at Melksham Station - (2009-11-24)
  [2486] Santa Special - Trowbridge and Melksham to Swindon - (2009-10-31)
  [2477] By train ... - (2009-10-25)
  [2473] Exploring Old Railways - (2009-10-24)
  [2457] Railway Arithmetic - (2009-10-16)
  [2438] Listening to The Minister - (2009-10-05)
  [2395] From Lymington by train - last of the slammers - (2009-09-05)
  [2391] Great Western Route Utilisation Strategy - Draft for Consultation - (2009-09-02)
  [2372] Public Transport from (and to) Melksham on Sundays - (2009-08-23)
  [2328] Melksham - no trains, no southbound buses through the town - (2009-08-08)
  [2318] For Lua Programmers AND for Town Planners - (2009-08-02)
  [2268] Westbury Bypass Refused - looking forward - (2009-07-04)
  [2133] Bigger and better this year! - (2009-04-20)
  [2057] Train and Coach fares from London (and airports) to Melksham - (2009-02-26)
  [2042] Wiltshire Rail Service Update - (2009-02-15)
  [2026] Melksham Climate Friendly Group - (2009-02-05)
  [2024] Carry on Training - in spite of the weather - (2009-02-03)
  [1999] How low can you sink? - (2009-01-17)
  [1966] Background to the TransWilts Train Fiasco - (2008-12-29)
  [1965] How much does a train service actually cost - (2008-12-29)
  [1964] Why hasnt the fiasco been put right - (2008-12-29)
  [1905] A Gold Star for First Great Western Customer Service - (2008-11-24)
  [1858] Camera with night vision, youth with no vision - (2008-10-28)
  [1848] 30th November - Santa Trip from Melksham - (2008-10-19)
  [1757] Preserved railways - struggling to the future? - (2008-08-17)
  [1729] Back from the future - (2008-07-30)
  [1708] A Train Service Update for Melksham Party in the Park - (2008-07-13)
  [1616] Not daring to be an anorak - (2008-04-19)
  [1567] Melksham - Swindon. Train v Bus v Car - (2008-03-07)
  [1558] Getting somewhere with the train service - (2008-02-28)
  [1530] Railway Acronyms and Abbreviations - (2008-02-03)
  [1452] Santa on the train to Melksham - (2007-12-01)
  [1428] Travel Across Wiltshire - the game - (2007-11-11)
  [1424] Closer than you think - the next step - (2007-11-08)
  [1382] First Great Western - information for customers - (2007-10-07)
  [1358] Look forward with a new broom - Wiltshire Train Service - (2007-09-19)
  [1314] Business travel by train in the USA - (2007-08-22)
  [1303] Heading Upstate New York - (2007-08-14)
  [1291] Day trip to Weymouth - (2007-08-05)
  [1274] Radio coverage for railway issues - (2007-07-23)
  [1273] Melksham or Weymouth? Meal or day out? - (2007-07-23)
  [1228] Some progress on the train campaign - (2007-06-10)
  [1139] Overcrowded trains around Bristol - (2007-04-08)
  [1097] Train and business balls all in the air! - (2007-03-02)
  [1093] Wiltshire Train - can YOU come on 5th March? - (2007-02-25)
  [1076] Save the Train - an update - (2007-02-12)
  [1069] Rail trouble forced me to buy hotel - (2007-02-07)
  [1063] Bradford-on-Avon - 150 years of passenger trains - (2007-02-03)
  [1045] Bang! Train campaign hits home - (2007-01-19)
  [1044] Call for appropriate train services - Swindon, Bristol, Bath, West Wilts, Severn Beach etc - (2007-01-18)
  [1033] Empty at Easleigh, Missing at Melksham, Overflowing at Oldfield - (2007-01-14)
  [976] Santa at the station - (2006-12-09)
  [974] The last commuter train through Melksham - (2006-12-09)
  [952] Coming from London to Melksham by train for a course - (2006-11-28)
  [877] Yes, but what do we do now?? - (2006-09-24)
  [814] Melksham Railway Calendar 2007 - (2006-07-25)
  [803] Not shouting - (2006-07-16)
  [790] Shadow Transport Minister to visit Melksham - (2006-07-02)
  [697] For any North and West Wilts and Swindon Readers - (2006-04-23)
  [688] Are you free on Friday evening? - (2006-04-18)
  [648] West Wilts Railway Users Group and trains to Lacock - (2006-03-16)
  [634] Real chance to make a difference - (2006-03-05)
  [632] Moral dilemma - (2006-03-04)
  [527] Greater Western Franchise Awarded - (2005-12-13)
  [524] Santa comes to Melksham - (2005-12-11)
  [521] Proof needed? Please just use common sense! - (2005-12-08)
  [488] Looking for railway groups and users - Swindon, Salisbury, Southampton - (2005-11-06)
  [486] Rail services under threat - Swindon, Melksham ... and Newquay and Bicester too - (2005-11-05)
  [447] Tomorrow's meeting. - (2005-09-19)
  [434] Through public transport connection, Chippenham to Salisbury, to cease - (2005-09-02)
  [428] Swindon - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury train service - (2005-08-29)
  [154] Railway train service, Melksham station - (2004-12-17)


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Identifying and clearing denial of service attacks on your Apache server
Four time target - good news. Four time prediction - poor forecasting.
Learning to program in Java - yes, we can help.
Please do not ask me to be the chair!
Libre Office - unable to get past REOPEN WINDOWS? question
Sunday is never quiet at Well House Manor
Perl - still a very effective language indeed for extracting and reporting
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This is a page archived from The Horse's Mouth at http://www.wellho.net/horse/ - the diary and writings of Graham Ellis. Every attempt was made to provide current information at the time the page was written, but things do move forward in our business - new software releases, price changes, new techniques. Please check back via our main site for current courses, prices, versions, etc - any mention of a price in "The Horse's Mouth" cannot be taken as an offer to supply at that price.

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