When Wiltshire Council asked for support through a local sustainable transport fund grant for a three year trial of an appropriate train service on the northern section of the TransWilts line (the Swindon to Westbury section of the Swindon to Salisbury line), they rightly set targets of passenger journey numbers that they wanted to surpass, with those numbers set such they would offer a viable way forward into the future at the end of the three year trial should they be achieved. Those targets are 45,000 passenger journeys on the section of the line which isn't shared with other services in the first year, rising to 108,000 journeys on the same section in the third year.

Separately from the targets, there are predictions of the passenger journey numbers we might expect. Independently, Wiltshire Council, First, the community and the community's consultants have come up with ideas / predictions of the sort of numbers that we might achieve, and those are a range of predicstions - lower figures based on some things not working quite as well as we might expect, and higher figures reflecing the results we would expect if everything goes well together. The predictions are all subjective, and many of them are based on commercially confident data, so it wouldn't be right for me to share them all here.

What I can tell you is where we're headed in the first year, now that we're two thirds of the way through. It's no longer a case of predications based largely on commercial data and theoretical work; rather it's now based on the extrapollation of actual data for the remaining part of the year, and I don't expect we'll be very far from 165,000 journeys - that's 3.6 times our target for the first year, and already 1.53 times our target for the third year.

In the past few days, I have been asked to justify how we got our forecasts so wrong, with some resulting doubt placed on our predictions. But we didn't get any forecasts wrong - the targets were / are the figures we need to reach for their to be no realistic question but that we've got enough traffic, and they are figures we need to reach to help ensure a viable basis for the continuation of the service. They were based on that model ... yes, we checked to ensure that the targets were going to be easy to achieve, and indeed we would have been foolish to set ourselves targets about which there was any real doubt. So we can celebrate being may times over target, with heads held high.

---

I will admit that our results are coming in very much at the upper end of predictions. And that's because of everything and everyone coming together to make it all work. Wiltshire Council with their support. First Great Western, who have made a number of decisions that have been really helpful, and their fabulous operations team, and some of our community members who have been there on the ground and getting into the hearts and making sure that people know about the services and the options, know where to ask questions, and feel an ownership.
(written 2014-09-26)

 Z501 - Public Transport - Rail
  [154] Railway train service, Melksham station - (2004-12-17)
  [428] Swindon - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury train service - (2005-08-29)
  [434] Through public transport connection, Chippenham to Salisbury, to cease - (2005-09-02)
  [447] Tomorrow's meeting. - (2005-09-19)
  [486] Rail services under threat - Swindon, Melksham ... and Newquay and Bicester too - (2005-11-05)
  [488] Looking for railway groups and users - Swindon, Salisbury, Southampton - (2005-11-06)
  [521] Proof needed? Please just use common sense! - (2005-12-08)
  [524] Santa comes to Melksham - (2005-12-11)
  [527] Greater Western Franchise Awarded - (2005-12-13)
  [632] Moral dilemma - (2006-03-04)
  [634] Real chance to make a difference - (2006-03-05)
  [648] West Wilts Railway Users Group and trains to Lacock - (2006-03-16)
  [688] Are you free on Friday evening? - (2006-04-18)
  [697] For any North and West Wilts and Swindon Readers - (2006-04-23)
  [790] Shadow Transport Minister to visit Melksham - (2006-07-02)
  [803] Not shouting - (2006-07-16)
  [814] Melksham Railway Calendar 2007 - (2006-07-25)
  [877] Yes, but what do we do now?? - (2006-09-24)
  [952] Coming from London to Melksham by train for a course - (2006-11-28)
  [974] The last commuter train through Melksham - (2006-12-09)
  [976] Santa at the station - (2006-12-09)
  [1033] Empty at Easleigh, Missing at Melksham, Overflowing at Oldfield - (2007-01-14)
  [1044] Call for appropriate train services - Swindon, Bristol, Bath, West Wilts, Severn Beach etc - (2007-01-18)
  [1045] Bang! Train campaign hits home - (2007-01-19)
  [1063] Bradford-on-Avon - 150 years of passenger trains - (2007-02-03)
  [1069] Rail trouble forced me to buy hotel - (2007-02-07)
  [1076] Save the Train - an update - (2007-02-12)
  [1093] Wiltshire Train - can YOU come on 5th March? - (2007-02-25)
  [1097] Train and business balls all in the air! - (2007-03-02)
  [1139] Overcrowded trains around Bristol - (2007-04-08)
  [1228] Some progress on the train campaign - (2007-06-10)
  [1273] Melksham or Weymouth? Meal or day out? - (2007-07-23)
  [1274] Radio coverage for railway issues - (2007-07-23)
  [1291] Day trip to Weymouth - (2007-08-05)
  [1303] Heading Upstate New York - (2007-08-14)
  [1314] Business travel by train in the USA - (2007-08-22)
  [1358] Look forward with a new broom - Wiltshire Train Service - (2007-09-19)
  [1382] First Great Western - information for customers - (2007-10-07)
  [1424] Closer than you think - the next step - (2007-11-08)
  [1428] Travel Across Wiltshire - the game - (2007-11-11)
  [1452] Santa on the train to Melksham - (2007-12-01)
  [1530] Railway Acronyms and Abbreviations - (2008-02-03)
  [1558] Getting somewhere with the train service - (2008-02-28)
  [1567] Melksham - Swindon. Train v Bus v Car - (2008-03-07)
  [1616] Not daring to be an anorak - (2008-04-19)
  [1708] A Train Service Update for Melksham Party in the Park - (2008-07-13)
  [1729] Back from the future - (2008-07-30)
  [1757] Preserved railways - struggling to the future? - (2008-08-17)
  [1848] 30th November - Santa Trip from Melksham - (2008-10-19)
  [1858] Camera with night vision, youth with no vision - (2008-10-28)
  [1905] A Gold Star for First Great Western Customer Service - (2008-11-24)
  [1964] Why hasnt the fiasco been put right - (2008-12-29)
  [1965] How much does a train service actually cost - (2008-12-29)
  [1966] Background to the TransWilts Train Fiasco - (2008-12-29)
  [1999] How low can you sink? - (2009-01-17)
  [2024] Carry on Training - in spite of the weather - (2009-02-03)
  [2026] Melksham Climate Friendly Group - (2009-02-05)
  [2042] Wiltshire Rail Service Update - (2009-02-15)
  [2057] Train and Coach fares from London (and airports) to Melksham - (2009-02-26)
  [2133] Bigger and better this year! - (2009-04-20)
  [2268] Westbury Bypass Refused - looking forward - (2009-07-04)
  [2318] For Lua Programmers AND for Town Planners - (2009-08-02)
  [2328] Melksham - no trains, no southbound buses through the town - (2009-08-08)
  [2372] Public Transport from (and to) Melksham on Sundays - (2009-08-23)
  [2391] Great Western Route Utilisation Strategy - Draft for Consultation - (2009-09-02)
  [2395] From Lymington by train - last of the slammers - (2009-09-05)
  [2438] Listening to The Minister - (2009-10-05)
  [2457] Railway Arithmetic - (2009-10-16)
  [2473] Exploring Old Railways - (2009-10-24)
  [2477] By train ... - (2009-10-25)
  [2486] Santa Special - Trowbridge and Melksham to Swindon - (2009-10-31)
  [2511] The story of the railway land at Melksham Station - (2009-11-24)
  [2513] Wiltshire Council purchases Melksham Station Land - (2009-11-26)
  [2522] Integrated public Transport - what could be done for Melksham - (2009-12-01)
  [2529] Santa Special, 2009 - (2009-12-06)
  [2533] Five guests, three groups, one car - (2009-12-11)
  [2556] Railway Station Survey - please complete today or tomorrow - (2009-12-30)
  [2557] Rail Campaign - response to core consultation - (2009-12-31)
  [2568] Forums for your Melksham and open source discussions - (2010-01-09)
  [2626] On Malachite Green - (2010-02-06)
  [2627] Saturdays out from Melksham - to Oxford, to Didcot or to Swindon - (2010-02-07)
  [2634] London to and from Melksham by public transport - (2010-02-13)
  [2658] Save the Train - a significant change in approach - (2010-03-03)
  [2662] Is Melksham public transport actually used? - (2010-03-05)
  [2664] Oliver Cromwell at Bristol Temple Meads - (2010-03-06)
  [2678] Reaching out to the community - a good case for support - (2010-03-15)
  [2696] Garlic bread without garlic - (2010-03-27)
  [2808] From home to Nurnberg - journey pictures - (2010-06-13)
  [2855] Train Services - Melksham to Bath and Bristol (and airport) - (2010-07-05)
  [2901] Ambassador or Anorak? - (2010-08-03)
  [2908] How Green is my train? - (2010-08-07)
  [2919] London to Calne, Corsham, Melksham, Bradford-on-Avon, Chippenham by public Transport - (2010-08-13)
  [2930] Walk - Tilehurst to Pangborne - (2010-08-21)
  [2931] Syncronise - software, trains, and buses. Please! - (2010-08-22)
  [2954] Railway meetings, trips and meetups this autumn - (2010-09-12)
  [2955] Melksham Railway Station - new information point - (2010-09-13)
  [2982] Travel, Transport and Tourism - A vision for Melksham, 2026 - (2010-10-03)
  [3006] Santa announcement, 5th December 2010, Melksham - (2010-10-20)
  [3017] Seventh day traveller on the six day railway - (2010-10-27)
  [3031] Get all your ducks in a row ... and they may turn into swans - (2010-11-06)
  [3033] Rail services back to Radstock? - (2010-11-07)
  [3079] TransWilts Rail News ... Melksham (Santa Special) Edition ... 5th December 2010 - (2010-12-04)
  [3080] Santa Special - rather more special than usual - December 2010 - (2010-12-07)
  [3111] TransWilts Link - Days out from Swindon to Weymouth? - (2010-12-28)
  [3113] Trowbridge and Melksham to Chippenham - more roadworks, even slower journey over the winter - (2010-12-30)
  [3114] Transwilts Link - both Wiltshire and beyond - (2010-12-30)
  [3119] TransWilts - some things to see and do - (2011-01-03)
  [3135] A time to be brave? We should ask for what is best for our area. - (2011-01-16)
  [3141] Wiltshire Rail services - a golden opportunity - (2011-01-21)
  [3161] TransWilts rail - what picture represents us - (2011-02-08)
  [3167] Can I take my dog by train? And other questions - (2011-02-12)
  [3171] Train and boat journey - the passenger accommodation - (2011-02-15)
  [3176] Comparing German, Dutch and British Railways - (2011-02-19)
  [3178] The cost of roadworks on the economy of our town - 1800 pounds per hour? - (2011-02-20)
  [3187] Past and Present - Melksham Station - (2011-02-27)
  [3198] TransWilts rail - coming together, wanted and needed - (2011-03-10)
  [3273] Wanted - a look to the future - (2011-05-02)
  [3274] Small scale improvement - big scale gain. And they CAN be done with local knowledge - (2011-05-02)
  [3318] Summer Sunday Trains - outings from Swindon, Chippenham, Melksham, Trowbridge and Westbury - (2011-06-05)
  [3328] Summer Sundays - days out by train from Swindon on the TransWilts - (2011-06-18)
  [3331] Comparing Alloa and Melksham - stations and services - (2011-06-23)
  [3336] Efficient travel - from Melsksham to Edinburgh by Sleeper Train - (2011-06-26)
  [3362] Swindon, Chippenham and Melksham to Weymouth - Sunday Train Service Starts - (2011-07-19)
  [3364] Dogs Legs on the Dogleg - (2011-07-20)
  [3370] Standing Challenge - (2011-07-26)
  [3371] From Wiltshire to Weymouth on Sundays - (2011-07-27)
  [3378] New product - ensuring that supply matches demand - (2011-08-03)
  [3392] What costs 8.20 from Melksham, or 22.30 via Chippenham? - (2011-08-14)
  [3403] Last chance this summer - Swindon and North Wiltshire to Weymouth by through train - (2011-08-22)
  [3408] Journey home by public transport for a Bank Holiday - (2011-08-27)
  [3410] A review of the Summer Sunday extra trains on the TransWilts line - (2011-08-29)
  [3434] Sundays - and over eating - (2011-09-11)
  [3452] Which or ATOC - who reads train fares right? - (2011-09-22)
  [3486] How important is public transport to people in the Melksham area? - (2011-10-19)
  [3487] Public transport - road and rail - (2011-10-19)
  [3493] West Wilts Rail User Group - Walk yesterday from Bradford-on-Avon to Trowbridge - (2011-10-23)
  [3501] Santa Claus - on the train from Melksham on 4th December 2011 - (2011-10-30)
  [3538] Santa Train - another successful trip - 4th December 2011 - (2011-12-04)
  [3550] Provide a useable train service, and people will use it! - (2011-12-11)
  [3564] I wish I was not a special case - (2011-12-29)
  [3565] What would an appropriate train service on the TransWilts line mean - (2011-12-31)
  [3579] Transport in Cambridgeshire - seen by an outside observer. What can Wiltshire learn? - (2012-01-15)
  [3601] Rail Travel - has it become more unreliable? - (2012-02-02)
  [3626] There is so much to see travelling by train - (2012-02-26)
  [3631] Getting around Dublin by public transport - some observations - (2012-03-01)
  [3642] Wiltshire Travel Times - Chippenham, Trowbridge, Salisbury and other places too - (2012-03-07)
  [3668] Kings Cross - new concourse - between Python in Cambridge and Objective C in London - (2012-03-22)
  [3671] Future train services in Wiltshire - please write in to support a better service - (2012-03-24)
  [3699] Bristol 50? Bristol 25? - (2012-04-17)
  [3728] The future needs for rail services to Melksham - change needed; current service an insult - (2012-05-11)
  [3736] Abstraction - (2012-05-19)
  [3761] Melksham - placed 2254 out of 2255. What can be done about it? - (2012-06-11)
  [3765] Christmas in June? Melksham hotel bookings and Santa train - (2012-06-15)
  [3784] Steam train calls at Melksham - Pictures - (2012-06-26)
  [3786] Improving Wiltshire Rail Offer - it WILL be happening - (2012-06-28)
  [3793] Excellent Rail News - what it really means - (2012-07-01)
  [3795] Like a bathroom company with no plumbers - (2012-07-04)
  [3802] What a difference a year makes - (2012-07-10)
  [3804] Scenes from commuting by train - (2012-07-14)
  [3815] The Melksham News - July 2012 - Part 2, TransWilts Rail, Wilts and Berks Canal - (2012-07-23)
  [3826] TransWilts trains - what the next franchise period will bring - (2012-08-04)
  [3860] Melksham to Steam in Swindon, by train - great day out - (2012-09-16)
  [3872] Trains across Wiltshire - an update on the TransWilts - (2012-09-28)
  [3873] Henbury loop, Bristol - a freight railway line with passenger potential? - (2012-09-29)
  [3879] Mixed mode travel - Information systems - (2012-10-03)
  [3881] Wiltshire Public Transport User Group co-ordination - (2012-10-05)
  [3882] Community Transport - Pewsey, Taunton, and the whole picture too - (2012-10-06)
  [3890] Here comes Santa - on the train from Melksham to Swindon on 2nd December 2012 - (2012-10-13)
  [3893] Public Transport across Wiltshire - a new map - (2012-10-13)
  [3899] Father Christmas to be on train in Melksham - (2012-10-19)
  [3904] Want to help us improve transport in Wiltshire? Here is how! - (2012-10-26)
  [3923] 35 minutes is only a slight delay on our railway service - (2012-11-15)
  [3937] Agenda for Wiltshire Link Travel groups meeting, Saturday 1st December 2012 - (2012-11-27)
  [3938] A long overdue meeting - a steeping stone towards coordinate transport user inputs - (2012-12-02)
  [3942] Santa Trip - Melksham Railway Development Group, 2012 - (2012-12-03)
  [3986] Rail services in Wiltshire - up in the air? We need to say what is best required. - (2013-01-20)
  [3993] Two trains a day ... how many fares to London? Guess! - (2013-02-04)
  [3994] On board Eurostar - a running commentary - (2013-02-04)
  [3995] Onward from Brussels - (2013-02-04)
  [4022] A request for all of Melksham transport groups to work integrated - (2013-03-01)
  [4040] Report on the last year - Melksham Railway Developement Group for Melksham Without Parish Council - (2013-03-11)
  [4080] Fancy a day at the seaside? Weymouth from Melksham - (2013-05-06)
  [4104] Weymouth vis the TransWilts - the day out today - (2013-05-27)
  [4105] Our day trip by train from Swindon, Chippenham and Melksham to Weymouth - (2013-05-28)
  [4110] TransWilts meeting ... - (2013-06-07)
  [4113] Wiltshire and Melksham Transport - what is going on? - (2013-06-09)
  [4131] West Coast (of Wales) - railway and stations in pictures - (2013-07-04)
  [4142] Passenger survey at Chippenham - report and pictures - (2013-07-24)
  [4146] A few more trains means a LOT more passengers. Why? - (2013-07-30)
  [4148] Special General Meeting, Adoption of Constitution for TransWilts Community Rail Partnership - (2013-08-01)
  [4150] Melksham Regular Public Transport Map - as at August 2013 - (2013-08-09)
  [4154] August Bank Holiday - day out from Melksham to London or Weymouth - (2013-08-20)
  [4159] People WILL walk to the station in Melksham, but they need a path and trains - (2013-08-25)
  [4160] Bank Holiday Monday - pictures of a great train trip to Weymouth - (2013-08-27)
  [4163] TransWilts Community Rail Partnership - formally constituted - (2013-09-01)
  [4173] Train and Rail Travel - who runs it and where do I ask questions? - (2013-09-13)
  [4176] International and off island travel from Melksham - (2013-09-16)
  [4185] TransWilts Trains - running a successful campaign talk - (2013-10-05)
  [4190] A radical proposal - a cheap and effective way to provide home to city commuter transport - (2013-10-11)
  [4191] Getting people to and from Melksham Station - not 20 but 700 times a day - (2013-10-12)
  [4194] TransWilts Link - meeting notes from 19th October - (2013-10-20)
  [4195] Booking for Santa, Melksham Railway Development Group, 8th December 2013 - (2013-10-21)
  [4196] Official - Trowbridge and Melksham to London train improvements - (2013-10-22)
  [4199] Draft Westbury - Melksham - Swindon train times, from December 2014 - (2013-10-24)
  [4202] Excellent Railfuture conference, but some setup lessons - (2013-11-03)
  [4216] Los Angeles - post modern transport system - (2013-11-27)
  [4217] New train service - launch plans and timetable links - (2013-12-03)
  [4218] A THANK YOU to those who have brought the new train service to fruition - (2013-12-06)
  [4219] TransWilts train services - up from 2 to 8 per day - (2013-12-09)
  [4224] TransWilts - first day pictures - (2013-12-18)
  [4226] Saturday train to Swindon - two weeks in - (2013-12-21)
  [4238] A Question series posed to Melksham Tourist information - (2014-01-19)
  [4250] Lacock Halt - former TransWilts Station - (2014-03-23)
  [4251] Broughton Gifford Halt, TransWilts Railway Line - (2014-03-24)
  [4252] Staveton Halt, former station between Trowbridge and Melksham - (2014-03-25)
  [4253] Easter Weeks - Melksham to Weymouth - (2014-04-02)
  [4256] Train fare look expensive? There may be a cheaper option - (2014-04-02)
  [4263] Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge, public transport over Easter (2014) - (2014-04-12)
  [4267] How effective is our publicity? - (2014-04-26)
  [4268] Metrics - historic and current TransWilts train use - (2014-04-27)
  [4269] Survey - Journeys - (2014-04-28)
  [4276] Swindon to Weymouth - by train, the traditional way - 2014 - (2014-05-12)
  [4289] It may be cheaper to buy in bulk - (2014-07-15)
  [4312] Officially overcrowded in the first year - (2014-11-15)
  [4342] My first official measure - Passenger Entrys and Exits - revisited 9 years later - (2014-12-05)
  [4352] A long day on the trains, but a rewarding one - (2014-12-14)
  [4353] Celebration pictures, year 1 - (2014-12-15)
  [4365] The changing face of Christmas - (2014-12-26)
  [4367] A year of rail memories! - (2014-12-27)
  [4378] What FGW passengers want to talk about / and PHP programming to find out - (2015-01-01)
  [4397] TransWilts / Press and Publicity report for AGM / 30th January 2015 - (2015-01-17)
  [4425] A Welsh valley - what the transport looks like in 2015 - (2015-02-14)
  [4464] Catching up on a week all in a single post (?) - (2015-03-21)
  [4467] Neighbourhood Plan - travel and transport thoughts - (2015-03-29)
  [4471] Leopardstown to Rosslare by train - (2015-04-23)
  [4473] Fishguard to Melksham - third part of Dublin journey - (2015-04-25)
  [4475] New car park at Melksham Station - ideal for commuters from Seend, Hilperton, Yarnbrook and Holt - (2015-04-26)
  [4478] Home in Melksham to Gatwick Airport - easy by public transport - (2015-04-29)
  [4486] Newark to New York - the PATH suburban railway - (2015-05-05)
  [4495] Swindon to Westbury train services - Saturdays from 23rd May 2015 - (2015-05-17)
  [4496] Sunday train times - 17th May to 6th September 2015 - (2015-05-17)
  [4511] The Royal Albert Bridge as you do not normally see it - (2015-07-12)
  [4512] The Weymouth Wizard - Saturdays in August from Wiltshire - (2015-07-31)
  [4515] Why has the hourly Chippenham to Trowbridge train been withdrawn? - (2015-09-24)
  [4539] TransWilts public transport corridor - (2015-10-15)
  [4578] Rail electrification - far, far too optimistic so over budget and late - (2015-11-20)
  [4596] Call for help counting passengers - TransWilts, 12th to 14th December - (2015-12-10)
  [4598] 21 places to get your train and bus timetables for TransWilts - (2015-12-19)
  [4612] TransWilts - robust these days - no longer the first service to be cancelled - (2016-01-03)
  [4623] Rambling from Westbury - (2016-01-16)
  [4636] Rail user groups worried about what is happening on the buses - (2016-01-31)
  [4640] Who was Doctor Beeching and what was his axe? - (2016-02-06)
  [4665] Chippenham to Salisbury by public transport - what we have and what we could have - (2016-03-26)
  [4677] Swindon, Chippenham and Melksham - day trips by train to Weymouth start for 2016 - (2016-05-18)
  [4684] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 1 - (2016-05-28)
  [4685] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 2 - (2016-05-29)
  [4686] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 3 - (2016-05-29)
  [4687] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 4 - (2016-05-30)
  [4688] Melksham Station - as at May 2016 - Part 5 (services and prices) - (2016-05-30)
  [4695] Melksham Rail Development Group becoming Melksham Rail Users Group - (2016-06-21)
  [4699] Melksham Rail Development Group - a celebration of 20 years - (2016-06-25)
  [4706] Melksham trial train service is to be made permanent - (2016-10-02)
  [4726] TransWilts Partner Update for Melksham Area Board - (2016-11-07)
  [4727] Learning from travelling further afield - (2016-11-09)
  [4760] Rotary Talk, 25/7/2017 - (2017-07-25)
  [4764] Some thoughts on the closure proposal for Breich station - (2017-10-11)
  [4765] Breich Station - current pictures, and future options - (2017-10-11)
  [4770] GW franchise - my response - (2018-02-20)

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