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New product - ensuring that supply matches demand

When a new product is brought to market, there will be a few people who buy it straight away - the latent market that has just been waiting for that product. Then there may be a bit of a surge as they tell their friends, before sales drop off to a more steady state level. It can be difficult to judge what the various parameters that control this curve will be, and thus to ensure that the product supply chain provides enough resource, but not resource to excess. And get that resources level wrong and you can end up with lots of unused product (= expense), or so much demand for products that you have unhappy customers to whom you can't deliver the full product that you would wish.

If demand slips after the initial surge, it's only to be expected. It might be because the lump of early uptakers has been catered for and you're heading for a steady state (that's fine, provided that you haven't invested a load of capital into meeting demand at surge level). Or it might be because supply problems have got you a nervous market, reluctant to buy the product / buy it again becase of their experiences or what they have heard.

As a product goes through these early stages, there's a need to adjust supply to meet anticipated demand, and to tune those adjustements ever more accurately as evidence of requirement builds up. And there can be a need to mitigate - reduce excess supply if demand is lower than expected, or provide alternatives if the demand outstrips the supply.

The 08:20 (Summer Sunday) train from Swidnon to Weymouth is a new product that First Great Western are trialling, in conjunction with the TransWilts rail group which comprises Wessex Chambers of Commerce, Wilthshire Council, First, Network Rail and the TransWilts Community Rail Partnership. I was away on the first day - 3rd July - but happy to hear that about 100 passengers travelled on the service; an excellent start, and on a train with 300 seats that left plenty of room. On 17th July, when it next ran, there were again around 100 on the service and a great day was had by all. Come 24th July, and the numbers rose to just around 190. Still comfortable, but the return service that most passengers have used has been just two carriages and that resulted in some standing - regrettably at its worst in the final few miles, so its the memory that people are left with.

It had been anticipated in some quarters that after a good show in the first week or two, useage levels would drop to a steady state, and that provision on the return service in August wouldn't need to be as heavy as in July. But after the 24th July figures, a directive was issued that provision is to remain at least as stong in August. Good news indeed, bearing in mind the initial success.

So did figures level out, as might have been expected, on 31st July? No, they rose significantly again, with over 300 people travelling. And that resulted in standing even in the morning, and an overcrowded train on the return; no worse than happens occasionally on the high peak commuter trains when they're a carriage short, but certainly not the sort of thing that people want to happen on a day out that's for pleasure, and certainly enough to make some say "why should I put myself through this for fun". News spreads, of course, so I now have no idea which way the figures will go next Sunday ... to some extent, we can say case proven when asked if a TransWilts service would be used. In our February public survey, people said they would use it for leisure, and with frankly minimal advertising (we had intended to do much more) and we now have real life data to back that up. It all helps us make for an excellent case for the service levels and times as a whole that the surveys and reports from earlier this year suggested would work. It's real evidence on the ground for us, whatever happens in August ...

We had planned and done some (again, minimal) advertising of other options. Coach connections to Longleat and Stourhead. Canal walks and cycle rides. And they're all excellent. But they've generated less interest that the Weymouth trip, and increasing the advertising on them to the intended level risks generating significant additional Weymouth traffic too which the train simply couldn't cope with so, reluctantly, we've decided to "pull" those options for this year. We will honour bookings we have (coach organised by TransWilts although the trains are First). And we need to consider how we're going to mitigate any issues as from next Sunday and make sre everyone who comes has a really good time. Numbers are now "anyone's guess" as we wait and see whether negative feedback from last weekend's blip results in a downward step, whether usage has naturally peaked, or if the crowd increases further .. and we must be prepared.

We'll have at least two TransWilts Community Rail Partnership representatives on the train down and back, all the way, on Sunday. Helping people move through carriages and find seats together. Ensuring (if we do end up with people standing from Trowbridge to Melksham again) that anyone who is a seating priority is actually seated. At Weymouth station, we'll help provide better informaion as it's proven to confuse new rail travellers that the train is dividing en route. And our increase presence - people who have been seen actively on the train on the way down - will help reassure people who may be concerned as being new to trains when the train doesn't get to the platform until a few minutes before it's due to leave.

Why do people arrive in Weymouth at 10:42 and leave at 17:56? Because that's the only train? Well - not quite. If passengers for Chippenham or Swindon want a shorter day, they can return at 16:10 and change at Bath. The journey WILL be about 30 minutes longer, but it's an option some may like. And indeed if the Swindon carriages of the 17:56 are full, people can travel in the Bristol section and change at Bath for Chippenham and Swindon - they'll get home about 30 minutes later, but it's an option they may like. We'll tell them, and we'll reassure them that their tickets ARE valid for this option. Westbury and Trowbridge passengers have a wider choice - they can return at 16:10, 17:56 or 20:09.

I'm looking forward to a great day in Weymouth this Sunday. I'll be on the 08:20 train from Swindon, picking up at Chippenham at 08:35 and Melksham at 08:45 ... and helping to make sure everyone else has a great day too. And I'm confident enough to have my wife, dad and dog come along too.
(written 2011-08-03)

 
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  [1273] Melksham or Weymouth? Meal or day out? - (2007-07-23)
  [1228] Some progress on the train campaign - (2007-06-10)
  [1139] Overcrowded trains around Bristol - (2007-04-08)
  [1097] Train and business balls all in the air! - (2007-03-02)
  [1093] Wiltshire Train - can YOU come on 5th March? - (2007-02-25)
  [1076] Save the Train - an update - (2007-02-12)
  [1069] Rail trouble forced me to buy hotel - (2007-02-07)
  [1063] Bradford-on-Avon - 150 years of passenger trains - (2007-02-03)
  [1045] Bang! Train campaign hits home - (2007-01-19)
  [1044] Call for appropriate train services - Swindon, Bristol, Bath, West Wilts, Severn Beach etc - (2007-01-18)
  [1033] Empty at Easleigh, Missing at Melksham, Overflowing at Oldfield - (2007-01-14)
  [976] Santa at the station - (2006-12-09)
  [974] The last commuter train through Melksham - (2006-12-09)
  [952] Coming from London to Melksham by train for a course - (2006-11-28)
  [877] Yes, but what do we do now?? - (2006-09-24)
  [814] Melksham Railway Calendar 2007 - (2006-07-25)
  [803] Not shouting - (2006-07-16)
  [790] Shadow Transport Minister to visit Melksham - (2006-07-02)
  [697] For any North and West Wilts and Swindon Readers - (2006-04-23)
  [688] Are you free on Friday evening? - (2006-04-18)
  [648] West Wilts Railway Users Group and trains to Lacock - (2006-03-16)
  [634] Real chance to make a difference - (2006-03-05)
  [632] Moral dilemma - (2006-03-04)
  [527] Greater Western Franchise Awarded - (2005-12-13)
  [524] Santa comes to Melksham - (2005-12-11)
  [521] Proof needed? Please just use common sense! - (2005-12-08)
  [488] Looking for railway groups and users - Swindon, Salisbury, Southampton - (2005-11-06)
  [486] Rail services under threat - Swindon, Melksham ... and Newquay and Bicester too - (2005-11-05)
  [447] Tomorrow's meeting. - (2005-09-19)
  [434] Through public transport connection, Chippenham to Salisbury, to cease - (2005-09-02)
  [428] Swindon - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury train service - (2005-08-29)
  [154] Railway train service, Melksham station - (2004-12-17)


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